Can the cyclical nature of history be explained through science? Ecologist Peter Turchin attempts to do just that in his book “War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires.” Turchin argues that imperiogenesis (the birth of empires) occurs on the fringes of civilization, where members of one society interact with members of another. This interaction causes a higher level of asabiya (a term coined by 14th century Arab historian Ibn Khaldun), or the level of social connectivity among groups. People living on these metaethnic frontiers recognize the cultural differences from the other society, thus feeling a stronger bond with fellow compatriots also living on the frontier.
Sound like an “us versus them” argument? Absolutely. Any casual scholar will recognize that history is filled with societies demonizing their rivals in order to subjugate their power and obtain their goals. Turchin, however, makes the argument that cycles of imperiogenesis and imperiopathosis (the decline and eventual death of empires) occur like clockwork. Is this so? Since this book is written with the general reader in mind, the mathematics have been omitted. Still, Turchin cites examples of where imperial decline coincides with decreasing levels of asabiya. The rise of competing aristocrats and their inability to unify against external threats led to the collapse of the Roman Empire. Asabiya led directly to the strength and ascendancy of the Roman Empire. Conversely, the decline of asabiya weakened Rome’s prominence.
Does this theory explain most empires? Turchin’s argument is convincing but I’m undecided as to whether it defines all empires. The British Empire, for example, was the largest empire in the world yet it was nowhere to be found. Instead Turchin discusses the birth and growth of the United States, where the asabiya of frontiersman expanded American borders well into Native American territory and across the continent.
In all, Peter Turchin’s “War and Peace and War” illustrated how the internal affairs of civilizations affect their expansionist ambitions. Highly recommended.
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